Commercial Real Estate Update

Some Fear Commercial Property Loans Will Be Next Stage in Downturn

By LOUISE STORY
Published: August 21, 2008
As the value of home mortgages crumbles by the day, Wall Street has hoped that commercial real estate loans would stay clear of the storm.
The Riverton Apartments, a 12-building complex in Harlem, said that it might default on a $225 million mortgage payment.

A default by the complex, the rent-regulated Riverton Apartments, a 12-building residential development constructed after World War II, would be New York’s largest in the current housing crisis. For Wall Street banks, which hold about $100 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities, the prospect has fanned new worries that a deterioration of the overall commercial property market could prompt more write-downs in the coming quarter, on top of losses already expected from their distressed mortgage securities holdings.

“The fear is the next shoe to drop may be commercial real estate,” said Jeffrey Harte, a banking analyst at Sandler O’Neil. “When consumer credit goes south, commercial will follow.”

At the end of the second quarter, Deutsche Bank held $25.1 billion worth of commercial loans. Morgan Stanley held $22.1 billion and Citigroup had $19.1 billion.

Lehman Brothers, which has the largest exposure to this type of security, is shopping about $40 billion worth of commercial real estate assets, as well as its entire commercial real estate business. A large part of its portfolio is a high-risk loan known as bridge equity made with Archstone, a metropolitan apartment developer, and most of the rest are floating-rate loans, which are riskier, according to a person who reviewed the offering.

Banks are scrambling to dispose of these loans, typically made to hotels, office developers and retail strips, before problems arrive.

Broader real estate indexes are already showing signs of trouble. Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index has dropped nearly 12 percent since its peak last October. A more conservative index by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries shows growth slowing to one-half of a percent in the second quarter, from upward of 4 percent a quarter.

Loans made for commercial real estate are typically among the safest, because a building can be used as collateral and big property developers generate income from the investment, raising the likelihood they will repay their loans.

But cracks began to emerge late last year, when Morgan Stanley reported write-downs of $400 million in commercial mortgage losses. In the first quarter, Wachovia, which had transformed itself into a leading lender in the nation’s commercial real estate market, said it would take write-downs of more than $1 billion for commercial loans for the second half of 2007. Investors had already begun balking at buying securities backed by these bonds, so banks like Wachovia were stuck with loans of diminished value.

Around the same time, the New York developer Harry Macklowe was forced to sell seven office buildings he had bought in Midtown Manhattan, as well as the General Motors Building, after he was unable to refinance the loan with his lender, Deutsche Bank.

Now, the prospect of an immense default on a commercial residential property in New York — which has not suffered as much as troubled markets like Florida — has lent new momentum to concerns over the stability of commercial real estate loans.

As Harlem grew into an increasingly attractive neighborhood at the height of the housing market, bankers assumed that Riverton’s owners could quickly convert many of its roughly 1,230 units from lower-priced rentals to apartments priced closer to the higher market average. That would generate a richer income stream, allowing the companies to pay off high mortgage bills.

It was the kind of optimistic assumption that ran rampant in the residential housing market, but one that remained less common for commercial real estate loans.

On Monday, Fitch Ratings issued a negative watch on part of the Riverton Apartments trust, saying developers had made only scant progress toward their goal. Rockpoint Group and Stellar Management — the developers that own Riverton — did not comment.

Before the credit squeeze, financial companies bundled commercial mortgages into securities in much the same way they packaged home loans and private equity debt. Riverton’s mortgage was one of the last ones to be wrapped into a commercial mortgage-backed security in the spring of 2007; it was then cut up and sold as bonds.

A recent report by Lehman Brothers showed that aggressive underwriting is what probably has brought Riverton to the brink of default, not a fundamental deterioration in the overall market. But that report noted that there are other commercial properties that received similar optimistic underwriting, known as a pro forma loan.

Comments: Although this is a COMMERCIAL RESIDENTIAL story, it does lead one to wonder what element of the Real Estate market will start to crumble next. Will this spill over into Commercial Office and Industrial? Stay tuned.

Commercial Property Market Update

By JESSICA HOLZER August 13, 2008

WASHINGTON -- Real-estate executives' outlook for the commercial-real-estate market has deteriorated as hopes dim for improvement during the next year, according to a Real Estate Roundtable survey.
More than 80 out of 100 senior industry executives asked said the general market has worsened during the last 12 months.
The share of executives expecting the market to bounce back even slightly in the coming year dropped to 53% in July from 63% in April.
Respondents cited the credit squeeze and the weakening economy as the chief culprits hurting the commercial-real-estate market. Nearly 90% of respondents predicted that commercial-real-estate prices will drop or stay flat during the next 12 months.
"Even though loan delinquencies to the sector are very low, the ongoing lack of credit for real estate has led to weaker property values and has stalled transactions," Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey D. DeBoer said.
More than 80% of the executives surveyed said the availability of credit was "much worse" than it was a year earlier, although roughly two-thirds expect the debt market to improve during the coming year.
Respondents were more optimistic about the equity market, with roughly half judging the availability of equity financing as "somewhat worse" than a year ago.
However, more than half surveyed said that overall conditions in the real-estate market would be "somewhat better" over the next year.
The survey was conducted during the third week of July.

Chris' comments: Industry insiders seem to be telling us that the market has stalled but not so severely that a major recession is in the works. Rents/revenue seem to be holding up and even though CAP Rates are increasing, this in itself is not a bad development. According to insiders, it appears that a period of sluggishness over the next 12 months is in the offing. Not great but not too bad considering the residential market environment and asset price declines.